Based on current projections, we anticipate that BZN will enplane approximately 1,384,080 passengers in 2025 which would be another record. The projected 4.7% growth represents an increase of 62,619 enplanements over the previous annual record set in 2024.
Calendar year 2024 enplanements surpassed the previous record set in 2023 by 89,546 passengers. The 7.3% growth was nearly 20% higher than the 6.1% growth we projected on March 5, 2024. The increase was due to several factors including strong demand for travel to more remote areas of the country, and population growth in Southwest Montana. The May through September 2024 performance was particularly strong. For the rest of the year, we saw a maturing market with more moderate growth with the exception of March and December which had growth more similar to the summer.
Factors that will positively impact BZN in 2025 include summer season inbound travel demand and new competition in the Seattle market between Alaska and Delta’s new service beginning June 30, 2025. On the negative side, significant unknowns exist due to Federal Government reduction in forces, reduction in governmental travel, new tariffs that could impact trade, worsening international relations that may reduce travel demand into the United States and falling consumer confidence. While these impacts are not expected to significantly impact our market the first half of the year, the second half of the year is less certain. The effect of one or two of these negative factors could potentially be absorbed by our market growth, however, the cumulative impact of several factors could have a significant negative impact nationally, regionally and locally including at BZN. Therefore, our 2025 (Low) projection includes a more negative scenario at BZN if these factors come to fruition. If the negative factors do not come to fruition, we believe the main 2025 Projection will be more in line with previous trends. Summer has the most chance of underestimating passenger enplanements if these negative factors are reversed. We hope these projections by airport management will give some guidance for calendar year 2025 expectations, however, all projections are based on the information available as of March 5, 2025 and could change throughout the year.
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